2010 is upon us I suppose, and that means mid-term elections. There has been some speculation as to what is going to happen this coming November, though most tend to agree that there is going to be a substantial shift in the political winds on some level. Whether or not such a shift would be cause for the Republicans to take back the House or even the Senate remains to be in doubt, but the Republicans are expected to pick up a number of seats.
This coming election is not going to be so much an election rather than a referendum on the policies of the current administration and Congress. While it is still early in the political season, there are some interesting indicators that are worth noting here that will illustrate how bleak things are looking for the Democratic Party.
-Barack Obama has crossed below the 50% approval threshold and has been in the upper 40% area since early January. Real Clear Politics has averaged a number of polls (and does so almost daily), and Obama today currently sits at 48% approve, 44% disapprove. It took Bush almost two terms to get where Obama is at now in under a year.
-Similarly, Congress has an approval rating of 26%. Things have not changed much, even with sweeping reform plans for healthcare and energy policy. After being in control for 4 years, clearly they are not perceived as better than their conservative counterparts.
-Scott Brown is neck and neck with Martha Coakley in Massachusetts for a Senate seat held by Ted Kennedy for a number of years. It could be argued Massachusetts in the most liberal state in the country. It is so close that Barack Obama will be making a visit as well as numerous labor organizations that will be dumping money and volunteers to hold onto a seat that has been Democrat for what seems like an eternity. Corruption has been a major problem in this Democratic stronghold, and only adds to the problems Coakley is having in her election bid.
-Senator Harry Reid is polling extremely poorly against the Republican candidate, whomever that would be among the field running against him.
-Polling continues to show opposition to healthcare reform as it is currently structured. Real Clear Politics average of the healthcare polls show 39% favor it and 50% are against it as of today. Of the ten polls averaged, including Gallup, Rasmussen, CNN Opinion Research, and NBC News, only one poll showed more people favoring than opposing. Despite these kinds of numbers, Democrats continue to move forward oblivious to the opinions of regular people.
-The election of Christie in New Jersey and McConnell in Virginia indicate a sway in opinion. This is important because Virginia is a swing state that went for Obama, and New Jersey has always been politically to the left.
-Unemployment is above 10%. That does not bode well for this administration or Congress. Barring some miraculous turnaround, this is not expected to change significantly between now and November. If that is not enough, you cannot get a loan during this economy, so that means fewer jobs yet will be available.
-More polling data indicates that 56% of Americans believe we are on the wrong track. 36% think we are on the right track. If things do not shape up here in the next few months, expect the former to edge up, and expect some big gains for Republicans in 2010.
These indicators are not very encouraging for the Democratic Party. If the trend continues, you likely will see some big gains for Republicans in 2010. Will it be enough to have a takeover like in 1994? While it may not be probable, it certainly is possible. One thing is guaranteed though: Republicans are picking up some major seats in 2010, it is just a matter of how many.
The Mang
Conservative Capo of Youngstown
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